A new all-time high on US equities, it’s official the S&P 500 has broken through the 3100 levels and stayed there. The Futures contract hit 3119.50 on the high tick, 2 ticks away from the 3120. Treasury yields dropped slightly, US/China trade talks brought around some optimism and helped the market rally. The Phase 1 deal is still well on the table it seems, according to US officials. Trump did admit to keeping new tariffs on the table if there is no deal reached, press reports also indicated that there is a slight hiccup in agricultural purchases along with intellectual property protections. House Speaker Pelosi suggested that a USMCA deal breakthrough may be imminent despite the palpably partisan environment in Washington as the House’s public impeachment hearings got underway.

The CPI number out of the US for October came out slightly hotter than expected, Friday retail sales and industrial production data however slumped. Germany was on the brink of recession but a positive GDP figure helped the nation slip out of “technical” recession. In the rest of the world, Chinese data slumped, industrial production and retail sales were weaker than expected. The Fed kept a firm hold on its monetary policy stance as Jerome Powell testified on Capitol Hill this week. He reiterated there would have to be a substantial shift in the economy to change the Feds stance. Interest rates retreated modestly on a global basis, but risk assets, in general, continued to perform well.

Here is a look at last week’s stock market on a daily basis (red vertical lines split days).

Stock Market and Sector Overview

Here is a break down of the weekly performance in various stock market sectors (top chart):

  • Energy  +0.10%
  • Technology  +1.83%
  • Financials  +0.22%
  • Retail  +1.36%
  • Utilities  +1.82%

Overview of key markets last week (bottom chart):

  • Crude  +0.78%
  • S&P500  +0.85%
  • Silver  +0.86%
  • Gold +0.56%
  • US dollar -0.38%

Weekly Economic Calendar

As November is about to wrap up we expect to see the upcoming Fed Meeting Minutes and other monetary policy events from global central banks. Other than that the central bank announcements there is little in high impact news in the coming week.

Monday, Monetary policy meeting minutes out of Australia

Tuesday, no high impact news.

Wednesday, CPI data out of Canada and the FOMC meeting minutes out of the US.

Thursday, ECB Monetary policy meeting accounts and Governor Poloz out of Canada speaks.

Friday, ECB’s new president Lagarde speaks, French flash services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI and EU Flash Manufacturing PMI. Core retail sales out of Canada, Flash Manufacturing PMI out of the US.


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